According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Financial Conditions Index has declined to 98.3, marking the lowest level since early 2022. According to @KobeissiLetter, financial conditions have been in a firm downtrend for roughly 3.5 years. According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 175 basis points since September 2024, bringing the policy rate to 3.75%.

According to Gary Black, US stocks fell and Treasury yields rose as President Trump prepared to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. According to Gary Black, Warsh is viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy and inflation than other contenders, contradicting Trump’s push for lower interest rates. According to Gary Black, the confirmation path may be complicated because Senator Thom Tillis vowed to block any Trump Fed nominees until an investigation into the central bank’s renovation is resolved. According to Gary Black, Trump is expected to announce his choice for Fed chair on Friday morning.

According to @AggrNews, Donald Trump has narrowed the Federal Reserve Chair selection to Kevin Warsh and Rick Rieder and is leaning toward Warsh, with the update attributed to reporting via @rachaelmbade (source: @AggrNews). According to @AggrNews, Trump has ruled out Kevin Hassett for the role (source: @AggrNews). According to @AggrNews, Trump met both Warsh and Rieder at the White House and plans to announce the pick tomorrow morning (source: @AggrNews). Given the timing reported by @AggrNews, headline risk into the announcement window could affect USD, Treasury futures, and equity index futures as rate expectations and liquidity sensitivity come into focus (source: @AggrNews).

According to @GreeksLive, the first monthly options expiration of 2026 arrives tomorrow with over 25% of options positions set to expire. According to @GreeksLive, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and there are no major near-term catalysts, keeping price action stable with implied volatility muted into expiry. According to @GreeksLive, this setup indicates a steady tape around the expiration window with IV remaining compressed.

According to @GreeksLive, futures pricing assigns over a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the policy rate at 3.75% with no cut. According to @GreeksLive, gold has posted new highs again and leadership is rotating among major speculative markets ahead of the announcement.

According to @garyblack00, online bettors have increased the probability that BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder will be nominated as the next Fed Chair to about 35%, compared with 42% for Kevin Warsh, with Rieder viewed as dovish and Warsh as more hawkish (source: @garyblack00). According to @garyblack00, a Rieder nomination would likely be received favorably by markets because his stance implies further interest rate cuts, a setup traders monitor when positioning in risk assets including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) (source: @garyblack00).

According to Charlie Bilello, the Fed has matched market expectations at every FOMC since 2009, and the bond market is pricing only a 2.8% chance of a rate cut heading into the meeting (source: Charlie Bilello on X). According to Charlie Bilello, the committee is expected to hold the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% with no cut, a setup traders can use as a baseline for positioning in risk assets including BTC and ETH into the event (source: Charlie Bilello on X).

According to Charlie Bilello, derivatives pricing implies less than a 3% chance of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and he argues the probability should be zero given credit and equity markets at all-time highs and inflation running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective over the past decade (source: Charlie Bilello on X; source: Federal Reserve). This points traders toward a higher-for-longer baseline when calibrating risk exposure in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other liquidity-sensitive assets into the policy decision and communication (source: Charlie Bilello on X).

According to Edward Dowd, the call from Treasury Secretary Bessent was heeded, source: Edward Dowd on X. Japan’s central bank kept its key policy rate at 0.75% as the country prepares for a snap election on Feb 8, source: CNBC International. The BOJ upgraded GDP forecasts to 0.9% for fiscal year 2025 and 1.0% for fiscal year 2026, source: CNBC International. Board member Hajime Takata proposed raising the policy rate to 1%, but the motion was defeated, source: CNBC International. The source report contained no cryptocurrency-specific guidance, source: CNBC International.

According to @CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin briefly reclaimed 96,000 dollars after the December CPI report came in line with expectations, source: @CoinMarketCap. CME FedWatch shows a 98.3 percent probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in January, source: @CoinMarketCap.

According to @CNBC, the latest Federal Reserve meeting offered several market-friendly points while warning of policy restraint, as reflected in the CNBC Daily Open headline, which shapes the near-term risk tone across assets. source: CNBC CNBC frames the setup as supportive but cautious, directing traders to focus on interest-rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar—key drivers of risk appetite and liquidity that affect crypto markets including BTC and ETH. source: CNBC

According to @StockMKTNewz, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Committee will receive a great deal of data before the January meeting and that everyone agrees inflation remains too high, adding the Fed’s two goals are in tension, source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Dec 10, 2025. This confirms the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability that can at times pull in opposite directions, source: Federal Reserve Board, The Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate. For trading, upcoming inflation and labor prints will be central to rate expectations and financial conditions heading into January, which Powell emphasized will be informed by incoming data, source: Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy Report; @StockMKTNewz. Because crypto has shown increasing correlation with equities, shifts in rate expectations can transmit to BTC and ETH through risk sentiment and liquidity, source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks (Jan 2022).

According to @CNBC, the Federal Reserve approved a third interest rate cut with a divided committee and signaled a slower pace of easing ahead. According to @CNBC, officials’ guidance points to a more gradual policy path than earlier meetings, centering market focus on the trajectory of future cuts. According to @CNBC, traders are watching the evolving rate path as a key input for risk sentiment and liquidity conditions that influence cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released at 2PM ET alongside the FOMC rate decision. source: @StockMKTNewz According to @StockMKTNewz, the SEP outlines the Fed’s current expectations for interest rates, GDP, inflation, and other metrics for the end of next year and further out. source: @StockMKTNewz According to @StockMKTNewz, the alert was issued about 40 minutes before the scheduled release, flagging the timing for market participants. source: @StockMKTNewz

According to CNBC, Trump will begin final-round interviews for Federal Reserve Chair, starting with Kevin Warsh, signaling the selection process is in its closing phase, source: CNBC. The Fed Chair also chairs the FOMC and shapes the policy agenda and rate communications that drive interest-rate expectations and liquidity conditions, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Traders should monitor US 2-year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and fed funds futures as implied odds shift during leadership selections, with probabilities broadly tracked via CME FedWatch, source: CME Group. Crypto markets including BTC and ETH are sensitive to US rate expectations and liquidity, with elevated volatility documented around major Fed policy events, source: Bank for International Settlements.

According to @AltcoinDaily, a new post claims the Federal Reserve’s next move will be revealed within 24 hours and could be the biggest moment for BTC and ETH, linking to a video for details, source: @AltcoinDaily. The post provides no specific policy details (rate change, guidance, or balance sheet actions) in the text, so the claims are unverified without the video, source: @AltcoinDaily. Traders seeking confirmed information should monitor the official FOMC statement, press conference, and policy materials on federalreserve.gov for the actual decision and guidance, source: U.S. Federal Reserve. For positioning and volatility expectations around the decision window, check fed funds futures and CME FedWatch probabilities as the market-implied baseline, source: CME Group.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump answered Yes when asked whether a new Federal Reserve Chair would be expected to lower interest rates immediately, in a video shared on Dec 9, 2025. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 9, 2025. The remark provides an explicit on-record expectation for immediate rate cuts from a future Fed Chair, creating a policy headline that traders can factor into risk management and positioning across rates and crypto markets. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 9, 2025.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the Trump administration canceled interviews with finalists for the next Federal Reserve chair that were set to begin this week, and President Trump suggested he has made his choice. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X. The Fed chair directs monetary policy communications and shapes rate expectations that drive the U.S. dollar and risk assets. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Bank for International Settlements. For trading, monitor fed funds futures (CME FedWatch), 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and crypto majors BTC and ETH for potential volatility as leadership headlines develop. Sources: CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE Data Indices; Coin Metrics.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump introduced White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett as a potential Federal Reserve Chair in remarks shared on X on Dec 2, 2025. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 2, 2025. The Fed Chair is nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, and as head of the FOMC the Chair influences the policy rate path that drives repricing in Fed funds futures, Treasury yields, and the U.S. Dollar Index. Sources: FederalReserve.gov; CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE Data Indices. For crypto traders, changes in U.S. rate expectations have historically increased co-movement and volatility across risk assets, with BTC and ETH showing stronger correlation with equities during policy tightening or easing episodes. Sources: International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Note 2022; Bernanke and Kuttner, Journal of Finance 2005. Traders should monitor CME FedWatch probabilities, the 2-year Treasury yield, DXY, and BTC and ETH order books for signs of repricing and liquidity shifts as Fed Chair headlines develop. Sources: CME Group FedWatch Tool; U.S. Treasury yield data; ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology; Coin Metrics market data. Kevin Hassett previously served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019, providing market-relevant policy background. Source: The White House archives (Council of Economic Advisers).

According to @NFT5lut, Bitcoin (BTC) has come under strong selling pressure, with weakness spilling over to altcoins including MONAD, pressuring overall crypto market breadth, source: @NFT5lut. The author adds that renewed investor and institutional flows will hinge on how favorable upcoming US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are perceived, positioning monetary policy as the key near-term catalyst for crypto, source: @NFT5lut. Lower policy rates typically ease financial conditions and reduce discount rates, dynamics that have historically supported risk assets including crypto, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Traders should watch the FOMC statement and the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) for rate-path signals that could shift BTC and altcoin momentum, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.